MLB’s non-waiver trade deadline comes Wednesday, and in my book every fantasy manager between should be scrambling between now and then to accumulate as many decent relievers as possible.
Saves are an unusual category in fantasy leagues: a counting stat where for the most part, only 30 MLB players can contribute with any regularity. You can’t say that about other counting stats, whether holds, home runs, steals, or RBI.
In a 12-team league, half the teams’ll have three closers and half will have two; I promise that in all but the rarest cases, the worst of the teams with three relievers will finish ahead of the best team with two when it comes to that category. More is better. And no team can have enough: even a squad with a healthy lead in the saves category can use more … trade an extra reliever (preferably one with name recognition) to a team trailing badly in that category in return for a player you can use. Or wait until your saves lead seems all but insurmountable, and on the eve of the trade deadline trade away all but one closer for starting pitching or power bats that’ll push you over the top.
If reports are to be believed as many as half a dozen teams will have new closers when the dust settles Wednesday night, whether because they’ve traded for one or because their incumbent was traded away. Pedro Strop, James Russell, Blake Parker, Antonio Bastardo, Luke Gregerson, Joe Thatcher, Dale Thayer, John Axford, Nate Jones, Jose Cisnero, Josh Fields, Wesley Wright, Mike Dunn, Casey Fien, and Joakim Soria are among those who may become their team’s official closer in the next 48 hours. Think of each of those guys as a lottery ticket.
Don’t spend too much time trying to interpret team commentary about what’s in the works: keep in mind that every team statement about who they may trade away or trade for is either directed at the player in question (as leverage or a confidence builder) or as a kind of misdirection to a potential trade partner. Take a look at the Tigers’ recent trade for Jose Veras … I couldn’t find a single media report or tweet speculating about that move before it happened. Everyone was talking about a possible deal for Gregerson or the Rangers’ Joe Nathan. Now Joaquin Benoit’s got someone looking over his shoulder in the Detroit pen, and there are at least three guys getting looks down in Houston. And there are more changes where that one came from.
My advice is to use every open roster spot, drop every player who you don’t want or think you can easily pick up again in a few days. Grab as many of those relievers as you can. If you wake up Thursday morning and find the guy you have is still No. 2 or 3 on the depth chart with the same guys ahead of him, drop him and plug in one of the holes you left to make an extra roster spot or two. But if you’re lucky — and you just may be — you could find yourself with a shiny new closer on your roster.
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Usually in this spot I highlight one player I find interesting. But this time, I’m picking two Gregerson and Veras.
Gregerson is one of the most intriguing names on the list of might-be closers above because he has two routes to becoming a closer: he could get dealt to a team like Detroit or Arizona, where the closer situation is uncertain, and he could take over there. Or he could stay in San Diego and inherit the role if Huston Street, the team’s current closer, is traded. And in the meantime, Gregerson pitches often and helps with ratios and strikeouts.
Veras is an even sneakier pick. He earned 19 saves in his tenure with the Astros, so it’s almost certain he was owned, at least until recently, in your league. But after the trade to Motown, manager Jim Leyland made it clear Benoit would still pitch the ninth.
Here’s what I think: Leyland likes Benoit in the eighth inning, and Detroit’s probably still looking for a closer. If they trade for Gregerson or Street or Nathan or Philadelphia’s Jonathan Papelbon, that guy will get the ninth, Benoit goes back to the eighth, and Veras is in the seventh and you drop him. But if the Tigers don’t make another deal and if Veras is lights out in his first three or four appearances in a Detroit uniform, don’t be surprised to find the low budget import closing for the odds-on favorites for the AL pennant for the last two months of the season. If an impatient owner dropped him after he was traded, he’s worth a gamble.
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